RSS

Competition among buyers in Metro Vancouver’s housing market heats up as summer arrives

VANCOUVER, BC – May 2, 2023 – With listing activity remaining below historical norms, home sales in Metro Vancouver1 have mounted a surprising comeback, rising near levels seen last spring, before eight consecutive interest rate hikes eroded borrowing power and brought home sales activity down along with it.


The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,7412 in April 2023, a 16.5 per cent decrease from the 3,281 sales recorded in April 2022, and 15.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (3,249).

“The fact we are seeing prices rising and sales rebounding this spring tells us home buyers are returning with confidence after a challenging year for our market, with mortgage rates roughly doubling,” Lis said. “The latest MLS HPI® data show home prices have increased about five per cent year-to-date, which already outpaces our forecast of one to two per cent by year-end. The year is far from over, however, and it remains to be seen if these price increases will be sustained into 2024.”


There were 4,307 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in April 2023. This represents a 29.7 per cent decrease compared to the 6,128 homes listed in April 2022, and was 22 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (5,525).


The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,790, a 4.2 per cent decrease compared to April 2022 (9,176), and 20.9 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (11,117).


Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for April 2023 is 32.7 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 24.4 per cent for detached homes, 40.1 per cent for townhomes, and 37.4 per cent for apartments.


Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“When we released our market forecast in January, we were one of the only organizations taking the contrarian view that prices were likely to appreciate in 2023,” Lis said. “And what we’re seeing unfold so far this year is consistent with our prediction that near record-low inventory levels would create competitive conditions where almost any resurgence in demand would translate to price escalation, despite the elevated borrowing cost environment. At the crux of it, the issue remains a matter of far too little resale supply available relative to the pool of active buyers in our market.”


The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,170,700. This represents a 7.4 per cent decrease over April 2022 and a 2.4 per cent increase compared to March 2023.


Sales of detached homes in April 2023 reached 808, a 16.3 per cent decrease from the 965 detached sales recorded in April 2022. The benchmark price for detached properties is $1,915,800. This represents an 8.8 per cent decrease from April 2022 and a 2.9 per cent increase compared to March 2023.


Sales of apartment homes reached 1,413 in April 2023, a 16.5 per cent decrease compared to the 1,693 sales in April 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $752,300. This represents a 3.1 per cent decrease from April 2022 and a two per cent increase compared to March 2023.


Attached home sales in April 2023 totalled 500, a 13.5 per cent decrease compared to the 578 sales in April 2022. The benchmark price of an attached unit is $1,078,400. This represents a 6.1 per cent decrease from April 2022 and a 2.1 per cent increase compared to March 2023.


Read

Competition among buyers in Metro Vancouver’s housing market heats up as summer arrives

While the year started slower than usual, Metro Vancouver’s housing market is showing signs of heating up as summer arrives, with prices increasing for the sixth consecutive month.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 3,411 in May 2023, which is a 15.7 per cent increase from the 2,947 sales recorded in May 2022, and a 1.4 per cent decline from the 10-year seasonal average (3,458).

“Back in January, few people would have predicted prices to be up as much as they are – ourselves included,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “Our forecast projected prices to be up modestly in 2023 by about two per cent at year-end. Instead, Metro Vancouver home prices are already up about six per cent or more across all home types at the midway point of the year.”

There were 5,661 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in May 2023. This represents an 11.5 per cent decrease compared to the 6,397 homes listed in May 2022, and was 4.3 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (5,917).

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,293, a 10.5 per cent decrease compared to May 2022 (10,382), and 20.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (11,705).

Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for May 2023 is 38.4 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 28.5 per cent for detached homes, 45 per cent for townhomes, and 45.5 per cent for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“You don’t have to squint to see the reason prices continue to increase. The fundamental issue remains that there are more buyers relative to the number of willing sellers in the market. This is keeping the amount of resale homes available in short supply,” Lis said. “And in a surprising twist, MLS® sales in May snapped back closer to historical averages than we’ve seen in the recent past, despite mortgage rates being where they are now, and new listing activity having been slower than usual this spring. If mortgage rates weren’t holding back market activity so much right now, I think our market would look a lot like the heydays of 2021/22, or even 2016/17.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,188,000. This represents a 5.6 per cent decrease over May 2022 and a 1.3 per cent increase compared to April 2023.

Sales of detached homes in May 2023 reached 1,043, a 30.7 per cent increase from the 798 detached sales recorded in May 2022. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,953,600. This represents a 6.7 per cent decrease from May 2022 and a 1.8 per cent increase compared to April 2023.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,730 in May 2023, a 7.9 per cent increase compared to the 1,604 sales in May 2022. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $760,800. This represents a two per cent decrease from May 2022 and a 1.1 per cent increase compared to April 2023.

Attached home sales in May 2023 totalled 608, a 16.7 per cent increase compared to the 521 sales in May 2022. The benchmark price of an attached home is $1,083,000. This represents a 4.7 per cent decrease from May 2022 and a 0.2 per cent increase compared to April 2023.


Read


Vancouver's real estate market was strong during the summer.


With COVID-19 restrictions slowly being lifted, people are being able to travel and do other things rather than buy and sell real estate.


With September 2021 in effect, we are starting off the season seeing a low supply, which is keeping prices fairly firm.


Interest rates remain rock-bottom and as we are nearing an election, it may sometimes drive people to think there is some uncertainty which may cause them to hold off on buying. There is also discussion among election parties about foreign buyers being restricted from buying real estate.


We do, however, have record-low interest rates, and going forward, the market is looking fairly stable, and we could see buyer demand pick up in the fall, which will cause potential prices to continue to trend higher.

Read


August saw Vancouver home buyers on a decline as sales were 3.5% below the 10-year average for the month. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s president Dan Morrison attributes the downward trend in Metro Vancouver during recent months to the new foreign buyer tax. He stated that “the record-breaking sales we saw earlier this year were replaced by more historically normal activity throughout July and August.” Residential property sales totalled 2,489 in Metro Vancouver last month; a 26% decline compared to August 2015 and a 22.8% decline to last month’s sales, while only 1% less than August 2013 sales.


It’s also important to note that while the imbalance between supply and demand continues, fewer detached sales at the high price points, and detached home sales in general, are skewing the average sale prices towards ‘decline’ while benchmark prices remain.


It’ll be some time yet before the true impact of the new tax on the Vancouver real estate market is evident, though in the meantime Morrison admitted, “It’s reducing foreign buyer activity and causing some uncertainty amongst local home buyers and sellers.”


Get the scoop on all the August numbers below:


New Listings (detached, attached, and apartment): 4,293

0.3% increase from August 2015
18.1% decrease from July 2016


Total Active listings on MLS®: 8,506
21.9% decline from August 2015
1.9% increase from July 2016


Sales-to-Active-Listings ratio: 29.3%


Benchmark price for all residential properties: $933,100
31.4% increase from August 2015


Benchmark price for a detached property is $1,577,300
35.8% increase from August 2015


Detached property sales totaled 715
44.6% decrease from August 2015


Benchmark price for an apartment property is $514,300
26.9% increase from August 2015


Apartment property sales totaled 1,343
10.1% decrease from August 2015


Benchmark price for an attached unit is $677,600
31.1% increase from August 2015


Attached property sales totaled 431
25.4% decrease from August 2015


For a complete comparison, visit rebgv.org. Want to sell, buy, or require a consultation? Contact me today.


*REBGV Editor’s Note:  Areas covered by Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver include: Whistler, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Coquitlam, New Westminster, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge, and South Delta.


Read


As of August 2nd, 2016, the BC government put into law an additional tax on foreign buyers in the Greater Vancouver Regional District. Once a property is registered at the Land Title Office, the tax applies with no exceptions and strict non-compliance penalties. The tax’s sudden introduction with seeming little-to-no consultation from real estate professionals in the Vancouver market left a lot of people in uncertain waters over the August long weekend.


What Is The Foreign Buyers Tax?

The 15% Property Transfer Tax applies to all residential property transfers to foreign entities. It is important to note that this is in addition to the general property transfer tax that is already in place. Failure to pay or providing incorrect information to avoid the tax can result in up to $100,000 in fines or two years in prison.


Who’s Affected?

Foreign entity transferees including: foreign nationals, foreign corporations, and taxable trustees. This additional tax is applicable on the foreign entity’s proportionate share of any residential property transfer, and on transactions that were previously exempt from property transfer taxes such as a transfer between related individuals.


However, the new tax does not apply to mutual fund trusts, real estate investment trusts, or specified investment flow-through trusts.


For further information on filing, paying, and avoidance penalties, see the Ministry of Finance’s Tax Information Sheet.


What Does The REBGV Have To Say?

President Dan Morrison of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver states, “We must ensure we’re doing what we can to help our clients understand and comply with the new tax.” For a more in-depth look at the REBGV’s stance, see their official statement.


If you have any questions regarding the new tax or its impact on the selling or purchase of your home, please don’t hesitate to contact us.


Read

To accompany the REBGV Report for 2014, REBGV President Ray Harris returns this month with a look at the housing market in 2014 in a detailed year-end review video.


Statistically speaking, it was a typical year for home buyer and seller activity in Metro Vancouver. Home sales and listings for the year both ranked 5th highest in the region over the last decade. There were 33,116 homes sold in our MLS listings for 2014. That’s up 16% from 2013 and 32% from 2012! This total, however, remains below the record breaking years seen in the middle part of the last decade.


On the supply side, there were 54,066 homes listed for sale on the MLS in 2014. That’s 2.4% above 2013 and 4% below 2012. This total also ranks 5th highest in the last 10 years of activity in the region.


While this largely created a balanced market conditions, we did experience some upper pressure on home prices over the course of the year. The benchmark pricing for all residential properties for Greater Vancouver rose 5.8% over the last 12 months to $638,500. Detached homes continued to be the most sought after property type in our market. The benchmark price for a single detached home rose 8% in the last 12 months, while townhomes and condos rose 4.5% and 3.5% respectively. Some of the largest home price increases in 2014 occurred in the detached home market of Vancouver, Tsawwassen, and North Vancouver.


Read
Reciprocity Logo The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the GVR, the FVREB or the CADREB.